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Million job loss alert from no-deal Brexit (The Times)

A protester outside parliament makes his feelings on Brexit quite plain SIMON DAWSON/REUTERS

A protester outside parliament makes his feelings on Brexit quite plain
SIMON DAWSON/REUTERS

A disorderly no-deal Brexit would plunge the UK into recession, cost a million Britons their jobs and leave households an average of £2,700 a year out of pocket, according to a leading global credit rating agency.

Standard & Poor’s said that the UK’s AA sovereign rating, the third highest grade, would be cut if Theresa May failed to secure a deal.

It forecast that this would shrink the economy by 1.2 per cent next year and 1.5 per cent in 2020. The resulting recession would push debt as a share of GDP close to 100 per cent by 2021 as borrowing soared, compared with its baseline forecast of 85 per cent, S&P said.

It forecast a jump in unemployment from 4 per cent to 7 per cent, equivalent to one million additional people out of work, and a drop in house prices of 10 per cent, while inflation would hit 4.7 per cent by mid-2019.

Mrs May claims that an agreement on leaving the EU is almost complete, but the Northern Ireland border issue remains unresolved. She has rejected calls from Michel Barnier, the EU’s negotiator, for a backstop that would keep the Irish border open to trade by creating a border in the Irish Sea — an option that is unpalatable to her allies in the DUP.

Continued on https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/million-job-loss-alert-from-no-deal-brexit-dhtklgbtd

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