Brexit vote: MPs poised to reject no deal
What is happening today?
MPs are debating the government’s motion on a no-deal Brexit. It is not quite a clean rejection of leaving without a deal. The motion tabled by Theresa May states its opposition to a no-deal Brexit on March 29 but also recognises that this is what will happen at the end of the month unless the UK and the EU both ratify a deal.
It is on this precise formulation that the prime minister has offered her MPs a free vote.
How will MPs vote on the government’s no-deal motion?
The common consensus is that there is a majority against no-deal among MPs. That consensus exists for good reason: a majority backed a (non-binding) amendment tabled by Dame Caroline Spelman and Jack Dromey opposing no-deal this year.
The government’s motion is more complicated: it does not straightforwardly reject the possibility of a no-deal Brexit taking place.